Breaking Down the Oscars Nominations

What I got right, what I got wrong, and my initial analysis.

This morning, Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman took the stage at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater to announce the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards.

As always there were surprising inclusions and omissions. (The word “snub” is overused.) I’m doing my best to ignore the braindead reactions on social media. There’s a lot of Oscars analysis out there today, so thanks for reading mine.

The big headline of the morning: Sinners smashes the all-time record for most nominations, with 16 opportunities to win come March 15. Does this mean it’ll win Best Picture? Not really. Like Emilia Pérez last year, this is the kind of movie that is very nominatable: a big budget, auteurist original musical.

Overall, I did okay with my predictions. I called 94 of 125 (75%) nominees correctly. Some of my big swings hit, others missed.

There were 35 features nominated this year. I’ve already seen 23 of them, with the remaining 12 all single-award nominees. Of the 23 I’ve seen, all but 4 were seen in a theatrical setting, usually at an AMC or NYFF.

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My Storylines: An Update

When I published my predictions yesterday I highlighted eight questions I asked myself ahead of the nominations announcement, mostly downballot.

And my questions have been answered!

Will No One Mourn the Wicked?

No one mourns the Wicked, indeed. After landing ten nominations (and two wins) just a year ago, For Good (the retitled “Part Two,” and not really a sequel) was completely shut out. I was really surprised because the two Wicked films were essentially the same production unit. It’s not like the costumes suddenly got shitty, sex cardigan notwithstanding. But I can see the logic. Why reward the same work twice?

That said, Ariana Grande deserved a Lead Actress nomination.

Who Benefits From the International Director Swap?

I thought that It Was Just an Accident would overperform projections, sneaking a Best Picture slot and a Best Director nod for Jafar Panahi. And that was completely wrong. Instead, the International auteur swap-in from the DGA nominees was Joachim Trier, for Sentimental Value. That was not unexpected, and I underestimated The Secret Agent.

Best Casting or Best Cast?

For nominations it was Best Casting, but the eventual winner will be a Best Picture consolation prize.

Will Senti V Overcome the SAG Snub?

Yup, as expected. The surprise was that Elle Fanning also got in alongside the Scandi trio.

Will Anime Ever Ascend?

No. Only one non-Ghibli Asian film has been nominated for Animated Feature and that didn’t change this year. A Demon Hunter/Demon Slayer showdown would have been fun.

Will Netflix Break Their Doc Nomination Curse?

For the first time since My Octopus Teacher in 2021, Netflix got a nomination in this category, but it wasn’t for the films I projected. In fact, this was my absolute worst category. I didn’t get a single prediction right! More on that below…

Will the Oscars Olympiad Ever Be Reformed?

There are flaws with the “one country, one film” system and I think things will come to a head at some point. As reflects the now-sizable international contingent of the Academy, non-English language titles performed well outside of the International category, with two of them in Best Picture and each Acting category featuring a foreign language performance.

Bad Year for Real Pop, Great Year for Movie Pop?

There was potential for an all-pop star Original Song lineup, but Ariana Grande and Miley Cyrus will not be taking the stage at the Oscars ceremony. Last year did not have any performances of the Original Song nominees, but it will happen this year. I’m looking forward to HUNTR/X showing us how it’s done, Kesha belting Diane Warren’s obligatory ballad, crying to Nick Cave, a barnburning performance from the Sinners team, and even the operatic curveball from a documentary that no one has seen.

In some of the years when the Song nominees had a mix of performers well-known and… not as well-known, the telecast producers would try to pull some bullshit and only have some of them perform live. Hopefully that doesn’t happen because the Train Dreams song is really beautiful!

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And the nominees are…

I’ve set this up as a sort of scorecard. My incorrect predictions are crossed out and replaced with the actual nominee.

If I have written about a film for this newsletter, there’s a link to that review.

Best Picture

• One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Hamnet (Solid)

• Sinners (Solid)

• Frankenstein (Likely)

• Marty Supreme (Likely)

• Bugonia (Lean)

• Sentimental Value (Lean)

• Train Dreams (Lean)

• F1 (Toss-Up)

• It Was Just An Accident (Toss-Up) The Secret Agent

Will win: One Battle After Another (Likely)
My favorite (ranked preference): Train Dreams, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, F1, Hamnet
Analysis: When I spoke with my friend Jason about Oscars betting, he mentioned his strategy is to come up with a thesis of the race and make all predictions based on that. This year, One Battle After Another will be a juggernaut, cruising to a Best Picture win.

I feel good about calling F1 here. Despite the internationalization of the Academy, there’s still a big boomer contingent, even if this was just a poor imitation of Top Gun: Maverick.

Films I Wish Were Nominated for Best Picture, Solely Because They Would Have Had a Great Dish in My Annual Oscars Dinner Party

Fortunately some of these can still be snacks at my viewing party.

• Avatar: Fire and Ash

  • Spicy red muhammara or beet hummus, swirled with a hummus made from black sesame seeds and black chickpeas. Fire and ash.

• Friendship

  • The Seal Team Six lunch deal at Ricky’s Bar: Four racks of rib, mac ‘n cheese, caesar salad.

• It Was Just an Accident

  • I love Persian food and the Best Picture lineup is always so American/European.

• No Other Choice

  • See above.

• Wicked: For Good

  • The pandan & raspberry cake that Karen made last year was incredible and I was hoping to reprise it.

Hardest dish to figure out of the Best Picture lineup? F1. Send me your suggestions…

Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (Solid)

• Ryan Coogler, Sinners (Solid)

• Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (Toss-Up) Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

• Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident (Toss-Up) Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Solid)
My favorite: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Solid)

Leading Actress

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Solid)

• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Likely)

• Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (Lean) Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

• Emma Stone, Bugonia (Toss-Up)

• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (Toss-Up)

Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Solid)
My favorite: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Analysis: Wow, Kate Hudson! Haven’t seen Song Sung Blue yet but I heard she’s the best part of a decent movie.

No film has ever won four acting awards, and though this wasn’t going to happen due to Jessie Buckley being unstoppable, now it’s impossible due to Chase Infiniti’s surprising exclusion from Best Actress…

Leading Actor

• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (Solid)

• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Lean)

• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (Lean)

• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (Toss-Up)

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (Toss-Up)
My favorite: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Analysis: …But I think One Battle After Another will get three Acting wins, joining the ranks of Network, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and A Streetcar Named Desire. (Shockingly Marlon Brando did not win!) That might be a bold pick since most people are ready to engrave Timmy’s name on that statue, but this award hasn’t gone to a young man in a very long time. I’m not quite ready to update my priors.

These five are all terrific performances and I’d be happy for anyone to win.

Supporting Actress

• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Amy Madigan, Weapons (Solid)

• Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (Lean) Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (Toss-Up)

• Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme (Toss-Up) Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Will win: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (Lean)
My favorite: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Analysis: These five are all terrific performances and I’d be happy for anyone to win.

Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (Likely)

• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (Likely)

• Paul Mescal, Hamnet (Lean) Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Will win: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Lean)
My favorite: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Analysis: Of the Sinners supporters I thought Miles Caton would have gotten in. Though I can’t be upset that Delroy Lindo is getting recognized. Many thought he’d get nominated for Da 5 Bloods but that movie sucked and Sinners is good.

Adapted Screenplay

• One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Hamnet (Solid)

• Train Dreams (Likely)

• Bugonia (Lean)

• Frankenstein (Toss-Up)

Will win: One Battle After Another (Solid)
My favorite: One Battle After Another

Original Screenplay

• Sinners (Solid)

• Marty Supreme (Likely)

• Sentimental Value (Likely)

• Blue Moon (Toss-Up)

• It Was Just an Accident (Toss-Up)

Will win: Sinners (Likely)
My favorite: It Was Just an Accident
Analysis: Feeling very good about going 10 for 10 on the screenplays, with Blue Moon having been a particularly good call.

Animated Feature

• KPop Demon Hunters (Solid)

• Zootopia 2 (Solid)

• Arco (Likely)

• Elio (Lean)

• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (Lean)

Will win: KPop Demon Hunters (Lean)
My favorite: Arco. But I haven’t seen 2topia yet.
Analysis: The Disney/Pixar bloc will move for 2topia over Elio, and the indie animators will be split between the French productions. Zootopia remains a viable threat but KPop feels inevitable. It would be the first 3D-animated Netflix film to win here.

Documentary Feature

• My Undesirable Friends (Likely) The Alabama Solution

• 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Lean) Come See Me in the Good Light

• Apocalypse in the Tropics (Lean) Cutting Through Rocks

• Cover-Up (Toss-Up) Mr. Nobody Against Putin

• Seeds (Toss-Up) The Perfect Neighbor

Will win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Toss-Up)
My favorite: TBD, I’ve only seen Cutting Through Rocks
Analysis: Haha this was my biggest miss, I didn’t get a single Doc prediction right! Funny enough when I made my initial predictions in December I had Cutting Through Rocks in the mix.

My takeaways: don’t dismiss HBO, even if it’s not in the typical style preferred by the Doc branch. I predicted the wrong Russia/Ukraine documentaries. And The Perfect Neighbor busted precedent: it’s Netflix, entirely archival, and popular. So that would make it a favorite to win here, but a film about an ordinary person standing up to authoritarian propaganda may be irresistible.

International Film

• Sentimental Value (Solid)

• It Was Just an Accident (Solid)

• The Secret Agent (Solid)

• Sirât (Lean)

• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Lean)

Will win: The Secret Agent (Toss-Up)
My favorite: It Was Just an Accident
Analysis: A non-Best Picture nominee has never beat a Best Picture nominee in this category. Based on that precedent, only Senti V or Secret Agent can win. I think the passion for The Secret Agent will make it fare well in this plurality vote. That said, depending on how the situation in Iran evolves, it could open a window for Accident to win and for Jafar Panahi to deliver a rousing speech before returning to his home country, where he faces a prison sentence.

I think the Oscars campaign for Accident was flawed, focusing on the political persecution. The way they pushed it made it feel like a “vegetables” movie that would be hard to sit through, when it’s actually a surprisingly funny moral tale.

Casting

• Marty Supreme (Likely)

• Sinners (Likely)

• Hamnet (Toss-Up)

• One Battle After Another (Toss-Up)

• Weapons (Toss-Up) The Secret Agent

Will win: Marty Supreme (Lean)
My favorite: Marty Supreme
Analysis: Based on this year’s nominations there’s definitely a lean towards sprawling ensembles populated with non-actors and/or star discoveries. I feel good about my initial analysis on this new category, though I overestimated the films that had to deal with last-minute recasting: Weapons and Frankenstein.

It remains to be seen if the eventual winner (which everyone in the Academy votes on) will mirror Best Picture or be seen as a consolation prize. I’m guessing the latter.

Some may wonder why Sentimental Value didn’t get nominated here, given it landed four acting nods. It’s very simple. There’s no overlap between the groups that voted in those categories, but more pertinent is that of the main cast, only Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas was found through a casting search.

Cinematography

• One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Sinners (Solid)

• Marty Supreme (Likely)

• Train Dreams (Lean)

• Frankenstein (Toss-Up)

Will win: Sinners (Toss-Up)
My favorite: One Battle After Another
Analysis: Two of the nominees were shot digitally, one on 35mm, one on 65mm, and one in VistaVision. One Battle After Another would make a fine winner but I think Sinners will edge it out in the end.

Costume Design

• Sinners (Solid)

• Frankenstein (Solid)

• Hamnet (Solid)

• Wicked: For Good (Lean) Avatar: Fire and Ash

• Hedda (Toss-Up) Marty Supreme

Will win: Sinners (Likely)
My favorite: Sinners
Analysis: If someone told you they had Avatar getting nominated here, they are lying. This is the biggest surprise nomination of the entire field. Like Miles Quatrich, the costumers must also be down bad for Varang.

Film Editing

• One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Marty Supreme (Solid)

• Sinners (Solid)

• F1 (Lean)

• Hamnet (Lean) Sentimental Value

Will win: One Battle After Another (Lean)
My favorite: One Battle After Another
Analysis: I can see F1 vrooming its way to a photo finish, but my thesis that Battle cleans up would necessitate a win here. Sentimental Value showing up here is a surprise.

Makeup & Hairstyling

• Frankenstein (Solid)

• Sinners (Likely)

• Marty Supreme (Lean) Kokuho

• The Smashing Machine (Lean)

• Wicked: For Good (Toss-Up) The Ugly Stepsister

Will win: Frankenstein (Likely)
My favorite: Haven’t seen Kokuho or Stepsister, right now I’d vote for Frankenstein.
Analysis: A pure horror film got a nod here! Stepsister was a surprise. Frankenstein not only has a great creature design, but it had to be re-tooled at the last minute when Andrew Garfield had to drop out and his replacement was like a full foot taller. That’s a strong campaign narrative.

Original Score

• Sinners (Solid)

• Hamnet (Solid)

• One Battle After Another (Solid)

• Frankenstein (Likely)

• Bugonia (Toss-Up)

Will win: Sinners (Solid)
My favorite: Sinners
Analysis: The music branch just does not go for dance-oriented scores, as we saw with Challengers missing last year. That’s why I didn’t predict Marty Supreme or Sirât and that was borne out.

Original Song

• Golden, KPop Demon Hunters (Solid)

• Dear Me, Diane Warren: Relentless (Solid)

• I Lied to You, Sinners (Solid)

• The Girl in the Bubble, Wicked: For Good (Likely) Sweet Dreams of Joy, Viva Verdi!

• Salt Then Sour Then Sweet, Come See Me in the Good Light (Toss-Up) Train Dreams, Train Dreams

Will win: Golden, KPop Demon Hunters (Solid)
My favorite: Golden, KPop Demon Hunters
Analysis: Gotta be gotta be Golden!

Diane Warren now has the record for most nominations without a win. At this point she’s a gadfly perennial candidate, the Oscars equivalent of Jill Stein.

Production Design

The links below take you to the design presentations submitted to the Art Directors Guild awards. They’re really cool to look at. Warning, they are PDFs!

• Frankenstein (Solid)

• Sinners (Solid)

• Hamnet (Lean)

• Marty Supreme (Lean)

• Wicked: For Good (Toss-Up) One Battle After Another

Will win: Frankenstein (Toss-Up)
My favorite: Sinners
Analysis: Pretty rare for a contemporary film to be nominated here, so it’s nice to see One Battle After Another be recognized for its blending of California and El Paso locations. Any of these films could win this category.

Sound

• F1 (Solid)

• Sinners (Solid)

• One Battle After Another (Likely)

• Frankenstein (Lean)

• Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Toss-Up) Sirât

Will win: F1 (Likely)
My favorite: Sinners
Analysis: Vroom vroom! Cool to see Sirât here.

Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash (Solid)

• F1 (Solid)

• Superman (Likely) Jurassic World Rebirth

• Sinners (Toss-Up)

• The Lost Bus (Toss-Up)

Will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash (Solid)
My favorite: Avatar: Fire and Ash, though I haven’t seen Jurassic or Bus.
Analysis: This is the first time a Jurassic picture was nominated here since The Lost World.

Animated Short

I will see all the short films in due time, for now these predictions are solely based on how much I like the title.

Also, some of these nominated shorts are freely available, so I’ve linked to them when this is the case.

• Éiru Butterfly

• I Died in Irpin Forevergreen

• The Girl Who Cried Pearls

• The Shyness of Trees Retirement Plan

• The Three Sisters

Will win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Toss-Up)

Live Action Short

• A Friend of Dorothy

• Jane Austen’s Period Drama (on Kanopy)

• Pantyhose Butcher’s Stain

• The Boy with White Skin The Singers

• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva (Toss-Up)

Of note: The Singers was directed by Sam Davis, who was nominated for producing prior Doc Short nominee Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó.

Documentary Short Subject

• All the Empty Rooms (on Netflix)

• All the Walls Came Down Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (on HBO Max)

• Last Days on Lake Trinity Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

• Perfectly a Strangeness

• We Were the Scenery The Devil Is Busy (on HBO Max)

Will win: Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

Summary of Win Predictions