Jason’s Full Oscars Betting Analysis (February Update)
A bonus supplement.
For paid subscribers, here’s Jason’s update to his full analysis, with comparisons of how the odds have shifted since his initial investments. Overall he stuck to his guns, only changing two of his predictions. Our interview covers most of this and is coming very shortly.
All odds taken from Kalshi as of February 19 and compared to the odds on January 8, when Jason made his initial analysis.
Obvious pick, OK odds
Category: Best Picture
Pick: One Battle After Another
Confidence: Very High
Analysis: It’s going to be One Battle After Another, but somehow the odds don’t reflect that. I doubled down here on what was originally a modest bet. Don’t be fooled by Sinners setting the record for nominations; plenty of movies have come into the night leading in noms and leaving with only a handful of awards (Screenplay and Score are likely, and perhaps Cinematography). This category smells like casual bettors; Hamnet is sitting at 7% and Marty Supreme at 2%. If you have $90k just lying around, you can put it on ‘no’ for Hamnet and come out with a cool $4k a month from now. Honestly as safe as a High Yield Savings Account.
Odds: 74% ⬇️ (from 82%)
Good pick, OK odds
Category: Film Editing
Pick: One Battle After Another
Confidence: High
Analysis: I had been keeping an eye on this category all month hoping to double down around the 60s, when suddenly it jumped to 75% after the DGA Awards (which is probably outside of my appetite). Editing corresponds heavily to the “down the ballot” effect. Also a case here where the spoiler has shifted, in this case from Marty Supreme to F1. In a vacuum this is a good category to get into, but with Best Picture the way it’s looking right now, I’d rather put my money there.
Odds: 69% ⬆️ (from 66%)
Prior verdict: Good pick, good odds
OK pick, good odds
Category: Cinematography